So,
Texas A&M is getting closer to joining the SEC, perhaps as early as next year. While that could be good for the conference for many reasons, what is not clear is what happens with Arkansas football schedule going forward. Let's play some hypotheticals.
Disclaimer: this is all conjecture and my opinion, based on what I know about Arkansas football scheduling. I don't know specifics of football contracts, revenue sharing within the SEC, or any other business aspects which may impact this.
Assuming the SEC stays with 8 conference games, the Southwest Classic is now a conference game. Sure, it can still be played in Arlington, but I'm not sure either school will want that. Right now, the schools essentially split the ticket revenue from the game. If it becomes a conference game, that split MAY go away. Here's why Arkansas might not like it in Arlington:
With 8 conference games, UA gets 4 conference home games per year.
UA is locked in to play two games a year in Little Rock until 2016, with one of those games almost always a conference game. That leaves 3 SEC home games for Fayetteville. Let's assume the divisional re-alignment means UA now plays Texas A&M each year, like it does LSU, Alabama, etc. Again, this is an assumption, not a known fact.
In a year in which UA is the home team in the Texas A&M game, if it is in Arlington, that reduces the number of SEC home games in Fayetteville (at least through 2016) to 2. An analogy is the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville between Florida and Georgia.
This year's Florida schedule includes only 3 SEC games in Gainesville (Tennessee, Alabama & Vanderbilt), while Georgia gets 4 SEC games in Athens.
With a maximum 12-game schedule, Arkansas has 4 non-conference dates. One of those is committed to Little Rock. This year, Arkansas plays 2 non-conference opponents in Fayetteville and one at a neutral site (Texas A&M in Arlington). Arkansas can add a non-conference home game if A&M joins the SEC, but then the Fayetteville schedule includes 3 non-conference and 2 conference games.
Recall that UA just raised the seat license fee (
through its RSVP program) for this season. I can't imagine fans will be excited about 2 SEC games and 3 non-conference games in Fayetteville, especially if the non-conference opponents are similar to Missouri State and Troy as they are this year.
Okay, so Arkansas can schedule USC like it did in 2006. Not so easy. USC might be willing to play in Fayetteville one year, but they will certainly want the Razorbacks to play in the Coliseum, as they did in 2005.
If UA agrees to that, it MIGHT create a season in which UA would have 4 games in Fayetteville (2 SEC, 2 non-conf), 2 games in Little Rock (1 SEC, 1 non-conf), 4 SEC away games, 1 neutral SEC game (Texas A&M) and 1 road non-conference game (at USC).
That scenario represents a significant loss of revenue from ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, etc. That is not a scenario, I believe, Jeff Long will be excited about as he attempts to maintain a $70 million annual budget for 19 sports.
