Miami football is not getting the death penalty, nor will it get TV bans... Here is why
I've been off the grid and in back-to-school meetings most of this week, but I saw a re-tweet earlier today from @sportstalkwbo of a tweet by @jonsol in which NCAA President Mark Emmert says he is okay with the return of the Death Penalty but Julie Roe Lach (head of NCAA enforcement) says there has been minimum discussion of that or TV bans. I think Roe Lach is correct, and here is why (in my opinion)...
In the 15 years which followed the noted SMU Death Penalty, 10 NCAA schools were "judged to be similar repeat offenders, but none have been given the death
penalty, and some have received only probation.” (Grant, Leadley, & Zygmont, 2009, p. 111). I just don't believe the NCAA will change that now, because the dynamics of college football has changed so much since 1986.
Universities today rely so heavily on revenues from football to fund non-revenue sports such as swimming and diving, volleyball and others, killing Miami's football program could significantly hamstring its entire sports operations. The most recent EADA figures for Miami indicate football brings in roughly $25 million per year. It's not unreasonable to think Miami might cut sports if it were to lose revenue from football.
Today, the Death Penalty not only kills Miami, but it kills part of the ACC as well. Without 12 teams, it can't stage its ACC Football Championship unless the NCAA grants an exception to Bylaw 17.9.5.2(c) (2010-11 NCAA Manual) which exempts 12-member conference championships from the maximum 12 scheduled football contests.
Television bans not only penalize Miami, but they also penalize the opponents. Until we can figure out technology that allows us to only watch the Florida State players during a game and not the Canes, banning Miami effectively prohibits 12 other schools from being on television as well. Wake Forest, Boston College and Duke would all be penalized for Miami's transgressions as well.
Empirical evidence by sports economists support this. Andrew Zimbalist of Smith College wrote in his 1999 book Unpaid Professionals noted while the length of
probation increased from the 1970s to the 1990s, the actual length of penalties such as prohibitions on postseason play and TV appearances diminished (p. 179)
More recently, Grant, Leadley and Zygmont, in their 2009 book, The Economics of Intercollegiate Sports, reported that between 1987-95, 10 NCAA Division I-A schools received television bans, while from 1996-2006, zero schools receive TV bans.
Miami should go down, and it should go down hard. But I doubt the NCAA will recommend penalties which impact other schools, or jeopardize clean athletic programs at Miami. 